Global Average Temperature Set to Break Record Extremes Again in 2024, According to Latest China-U.S. Research
The China global Merged Surface Temperature (CMST) based on the fusion of China global Land Surface Air Temperature (C-LSAT) and Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature version 6 (ERSSTv6) shows that the Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) in 2024 is 0.08 ℃ warmer than in 2023, once again breaking the extreme and becoming the warmest year on record. According to the usual assessment, the warming amplitude relative to pre-industrial levels in 2024 reaches 1.51 ℃ (if another global sea surface temperature dataset HadSST4 is used, this value may even exceed 1.6 ℃). According to our previous evaluations, the estimated global average temperature from 1850 to 1900, which serves as a temperature benchmark before industrialization, is slightly higher (0.1-0.2 ℃), and the GMST is rapidly moving towards the 2.0 ℃ temperature control target.
References
ERSSTv6：
Huang B., Yin X.,Boyer T., et al，2025, ExtendedReconstructed Sea Surface Temperature Version 6 (ERSSTv6): Part I. AnArtificial Neural Network Approach, J. Climate, online，DOI 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0707.1.
C-LSAT&CMAT：
Sun W, Li Q*, Huang B,Dong W, Wang X, Zhai P and Phil Jones, 2021. The assessment of global surfacetemperature change from 1850s: the C-LSAT2.0 ensemble and the CMST-Interimdatasets, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 38, 875-888, DOI: 10.1007/s00376-021-1012-3.
Li Q, Sun W, Yun X,Huang B, Dong W, Wang X, Zhai P and Phil Jones, 2021, An updated evaluation ofthe global mean Land Surface Air Temperature and Surface Temperature trendsbased on CLSAT and CMST, Climate Dynamics, 56: 635-650, DOI:10.1007/s00382-020-05502-0
Li Z., Sun W., Liang C.,Xing X., Li Q*. Arctic warming trends and their uncertainties based on surfacetemperature reconstruction under different sea ice extent scenarios. Adv. Clim.Change Res.2023，14: 335-346.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2023.06.003.
Li Q., Li Z., Li X., etal, 2023, Constraining the global mean surface temperature during 1850-1900with new statistical physical model, DOI: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2308.04465.
